The Struggle for Global Power: A World in the Shadow of War

Despite many changes over the past 110 years, there are still geopolitical developments today that make a global conflict more likely. In particular, the formation of solid blocks that stand in hostility to each other reminds us of the tension before 1914, when the Central Powers were against the war-decisive coalition of France, Great Britain, and Russia. Today, we see the emergence of a global alliance that is turning against the West, led by the United States, with Russia, China, and Iran as the main actors, who have more strongly allied since Russia attacked Ukraine.

In addition to this, a security agreement between Russia and North Korea, which Vladimir Putin signed during his state visit to Pyongyang has given reason for concern. The Korean peninsula remains the most dangerous place in the world, as the regime of Kim Jong-un is constantly on the brink of collapse due to its weak economy and the allure of wealthy South Korea. To avoid a fate like East Germany, the regime relies on particularly brutal repression and a growing nuclear arsenal. An attack on South Korea would force the United States to intervene according to their alliance obligations and could now also involve Russia on the opposing side.

There are still many states that remain diplomatically neutral towards the differing global blocks, but both sides are increasingly pressuring them to take a stance - as indicated by Putin's visit to Vietnam. While Russia completely aligns its economy with war and China is accelerating its armament program, the USA are increasingly successful in urging their allies in Europe and East Asia to boost their defense spending.

China is not only intimidating Taiwan, a key player in the world economy, but it's also provoking the Philippines in the South China Sea, a U.S. ally which it unjustifiably claims - despite these claims being declared illegal by the International Court in The Hague in 2016. It's almost as if Xi Jinping is trying to lure the USA into a military intervention in his neighborhood.

The more the strategic axis between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing solidifies, the greater the risk that regional conflicts of Israel with Iran's allies in close proximity to its borders could lead to far-reaching global consequences. Not only does this growing alliance increase geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but it also raises the likelihood that local disputes evolve into a wider international conflict.

The essential difference from 1914 lies in the fact that today's politicians must be aware of the rapid dynamics by which crises can spiral out of control. Global power structures and information flows are significantly more complex and faster than a century ago, which increases the risk of an uncontrollable conflict. In addition to these challenges, we are now facing the threat of massive nuclear arsenals, which make a world war almost unimaginable – but unfortunately not completely impossible. These massive weapon arsenals bring a new dimension of danger, as they theoretically still leave the possibility of a comprehensive global war open, even though the devastating consequences should massively deter escalation.

These developments present the USA and NATO, under their future Secretary General Mark Rutte, with a particularly difficult challenge: It is essential to effectively contain the aggressive aspirations of authoritarian regimes in Moscow, Beijing and other countries, without, however, increasing the risk of global conflicts. This requires a fine balance between determined deterrence and diplomatic restraint, to ensure that the international balance is maintained and escalations that could lead to a large-scale war are avoided.